Its pretty bad. Its like pointing a gun to your neighbor's head and asking him for the money he's being saving for his child's education and then telling him -
"Hey, I'll gamble it on the roulet in Vegas and MAYBE there is a chance that you might get your money back".
The American taxpayer is just not ready to take that chance - I am one of them and I don't like this one bit!
Wednesday, September 24, 2008
$ 700,00,00,00,000 - What are they thinking?
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
How did you like this article (1-5) ?
37 comments:
But then on the other hand, are you willing for the economy to go down the drain and loose the job? the reason we all are here is to get a better life, living and make some money..and if thats lost..whats the whole point? I think if the american economy needs a boost, then I am willing to take that gamble..I dont think its time now to be short sighted. It was absolute short sightedness then, when the economy grew leaps and bounds and every tom, dick and harry got mortgage loans for house they could never afford to pay back.If the money is not fed now..I am afraid, its either going to be too late or the down ward negative spiral will replicate the 1930's great depression. I pay so much tax for a lot of junk, might as well use it to boost what I am building..a future..right? no?
See that is an interesting point and hence my motivation to write this blog (to those of you thinking why I wrote such a short blog). The question here is - do people like ESIH and other faithful taxpaying citizens bail out the gambling habits of a few Wall St. traders? Or do we let the markets take control (and possibly enter a deep recession - if we are not already in one). The point is neither one option is the complete answer - we need to injection of money at this moment for the sake of the honest, hard working middle and lower class BUT we cannot and should not forget the wrongdoing of a few. The majority is usually not bothered enough and only happy to let a few powerful men make money - but when those few cross the limit and tamper with the bread and butter of the common man, they need to pay. I agree that the money needs to go in to the market but my madness demands justice.
Makes sense?
One more thing - whether the money needs to go or not is besides the point. I want to bring out the reluctance of the common man in bailing out the misadventures of a few.
agreed to the point that the wrong doers need to be brought to justice..and thats why I think wall street is way over-rated! The high paying jobs have no security and nothing that offers anybody any comfort, one bank comes down, and with it comes the 1000s of them who work and then its a chain reaction. I totall would go for a moderated pay package for investment banking. too much of everything is disastrous and we are just watching it unfold, one bank at a time!
But then some would call this the death of capitalism - if you believe some experts, this whole mortgage meltdown was started because of governmental controls. Now, after all the mess what is the solution? More government control. I mean come on, this is not freaking Russia - its the USA. Would Bernanke and Paulson not agree? Read this - http://www.lewrockwell.com/dilorenzo/dilorenzo125.html and http://www.investopedia.com/articles/07/subprime-blame.asp?Page=1
How much is the war in Iraq costing us every day?
I have come here to live the american dream ...
Is the dream disappearing before our very eyes?
How about giving it a last shot ...
I am ready to take the gamble ...
instead of criticizing the initiative ... how about providing a solution?You might provide some ideas to the highly qualified (LoL) presidential candidates ...
@An American..
First question - if you are an american, why have you 'come here to live the american dream'. Just asking..
Secondly, I agree but you see all these things become a question of judgment and morality - some people can justify the end game no matter what the means (Iraq war and its false pretexts) whereas some don't mind personally compromising for overall peace (common man bailing out the very firms they took loans from). I mean, at the end of this crisis, you and I will go back to making money, the leaders will again be intoxicated with power and the majority would again left in the trenches for the next 4 years until its election time again.
However it would be a big lesson learnt the hard way ... every big organisation .. the government .. u ... me ... are going to be more careful now ... Its a second chance for the global economy and a precedent will be set for a system having more controls ...
Still waiting for your solutions though :-)
P.S. If youve been here long enough and love the country ... theres no harm calling yourself an american .. is it?
The solution is India, my friend. It was a pseudo Socialist economy two decades back but is trying to imbibe capitalism (while trying to filter out completely free market based speculations since that would adversely effect the 70% of the poor population). We are still not there but I am hopeful that with some trials and errors, we can be there (and you cannot give me the example of China since for me, and for all of us who have tasted freedom once, we know how important that is).
Btw, just wondering, why are you ashamed of using your real name? I know you are on my Google talk and you're absolutely fudging your IP from this site - Performance Systems International Inc. Just come clean man?
Calling yourself an american makes you no less an Indian or Chinese or Japanese ...(whatever country ur from originally) .. but this is totally besides the point here ..
Now ur comparing two drastically different economy models .. what works in India will not work here ... not immediately at least ... What we need right now is a boost .. Do you know how many MBA/MS students from India have lost/are going to lose jobs due to what is happening? When your house gets flooded with water ... you use your own buckets to throw the water out ... Thats exactly what is happening here ...
Who I am and who you are really doesnt matter... The current plan to provide a boost to economy seems logical ... once done ... it NEEDS to be ensured that the same mistakes or new ones for that matter do not happen ... The DRISHTIKON of the government/financial institutions needs some serious foresight this time around though .. Are you with me on this one now?
1. Agreed that the economies are different but I just pointed to something which is mostly moderated, not based on extreme ideas of either capitalism or socialism and which has created a middle class of the size of America.
2. How does Indians losing jobs even come in to the argument? Everyone is losing jobs and Indians might too - but let me tell you that they will be the first to be hired back too. They are mostly well educated and for usually willing to work really hard.
3. Are you planning on disclosing your real identity coz I really don't like anon comments which smell of Indian curry. :-)
Yes sir - i don't think I ever disagreed on the fact that there needs to be some serious foresight. I am just pissed coz its my money going in to bailing out wall st. whereas it could have gone in to some government project on where I could have worked (selfish, but honest). Yes eventually it does not matter who you or I am, but that does not take from me the right to be pissed. :)
Good night mr. american..
point taken .. Indians losing jobs or being the first ones to get hired back does not matter ...
What Im trying to tell you is that for the immediate good of working and studying professionals .. this will be a welcome relief ..
You just cannot advocate changing the mindset of an entire economy in a crisis situation .. and not do anything to set it right ... there are lots of investment bankers in Manhattan losing sleepless nights :-) who are not going to like your suggestion of doing away with this plan .
haan sleepless nights to dikh hi rahee hain - tum bhi jage ho aur mai bhi...aur 2 baj rahe hain subah ke..
Chalo, lets call it a truce - hopefully you are still employed and will remain so in the future..
Truce it is ... as I said this isnt about u and me ... we need to look at the bigger picture ... but if this isnt done now then we will be victims of the wrath of a terrible depression ..
1. In the present scenario bailing out is the only option the US govt. has to preserve its volatile economy.....and when we say bailing out please don't confuse it with giving away the money......it's a debt being given to these companies just to provide them with some liquidity......Now the question is whether by giving this loan is the govt. punishing the more conservative and stable financial institution and I feel the answer is no.....The economy has its way of giving out justice......These investment banks rely a lot on their brand name and the trust the public has on them....the mistakes they have made will be punished by the public.....You will think twice before investing in an AIG over say Aegeon ....... So Ujjwal- as they say for the greater good it is necessary.
2. As for the overall economy....it has always been a sine curve and will always be one.....be it socialist,communist or capitalist ....India had its rough times and so did US and Russia...I dont have a solution for this yet....but if I can think of something I will quote this blog as my inspiration in my nobel peace prize speech.
p.s. I am not a regular blogger so please excuse my writing
When small people make mistakes it usually affects one or two people.. When leaders (political/business/...) make mistakes it generally affects a whole generation.
I am not educated enough to say if this move (by the US Government) is in the right direction. I however sincerely hope that it is because IMHO its the only thing which a government can do in a capitalist economy. We can only hope that we the people learn from such mistakes and try not to repeat the same ones.
@anon: Good 1st point Savit.
@Aditya: Yeah, at the end of the day, the people who are in a position to take decision are our best bet and however screwed up their judgment might have been in the past, they still remain our best hopes.
agreed you dont like the current scenario. so what would be a more likeable option in your opinion for the average taxpayer?
@Nikhil: Why do I HAVE TO have to have a solution? Why can't I simply by pissed about the situation? Why can't you read the previous comments first? I have said - I (and no one else on the planet) don't have a better solution but that does not mean you cannot be upset about the whole thing.
sorry for joining in late in this healthy conversation ,
but the facts are : We as businessmen in India should be proud of the fact that our profits are guaranteed by the govt :)
take risks, build something huge on a weak foundation, become so important that the fuck*%g govt has to bail you out,
The common man has and always been repressed,whether it be India, China or US. thsi time around its more prevalent in US, but we know about it since a long time,
These folks in US have been made in gullible guinea pigs for many things, and they trust their govt in the times of crisis.
You will not see a general strike called by democrats which will paralyse the country and move us a year behind in development
America is no longer better than Venezuela
Its just Hugo Chavez is very vocal
and Bush does it behind the scenes.
But now everything is in the open for all to see.
When the mortgage crisis came initially nothing was done to bail out the basis of American Economy namely the home owners/taxpayers
BUt when the icons of American economy started balking, we had the grand rescue plan...
If u see what the ttreasury secretary says , u will be astonished, His decisions would be unquestionable and final.
Well The american dream is over for our generation ,
Think of An European dream :)
This tattered economy will buiold up rigth now from scratch and without the flaws of the previous 100% free capitalist economy
If you have the guts, invest and grow with the economy,
The Green revolution will help the american economy
Stay the course, quiot your jobs after some time and start a business and grow with the economy, thats the only way you can actually benefit from this crisis.
We can klet the markets take control, but people who have invested their life in 401k accounts will be the losers not us.
We are safe.
and no matter what happens this time around with the bailout, we are still kind of insured.
We can study what approach we took and whether it was right or wrong..
For the rest, stop whining about the american dream,
It still lives on in Las Vegas,
go and score with the chicks at the local bar
The rents for your apts are still going steady, and its a good time to buy a car, good deals out there,
Positivity in adversity thats what this marvadi from rajasthan will suggest.
and we did not come to the US for wrong reasons look at the silver lining
"You make profits -> you rake it all in,
You screw up -> the country pays for your losses"
This country's paradise
enjoy....
boy,
I could not get more sarcastic and yet informative at the same time :)
wtf nobody i active or what!!!!
its a double edged sword. Sure, the investment banks screwed up and screwed up big. But who is to blame? do u blame all the traders in the companies? No. I think its more the fault of senior management than anyone else. As a junior trader, u do what the firm wants you to do. You work out the risk and then take it from there. If you can hedge ur risk do it, but the word from above was to just go ahead with the hope that the economy is getting better, and things will look up, and everything will just blow over.
Like i said on my blog, Murphy doesnt like ppl who wish and hope all the time. Things went to hell, and now that the shit has hit the fan, the IBs have taken a beating. But can u say that the entire economy is in tatters? No. Its a big thing that the banks have no money and dont trust one another. The housing industry is a mess. The auto industry is crying for a bailout. Tech firms, however, continue to move on, semi unscathed. Take a look at the recent recruiting scene if u dont believe me.
And now, who loses their jobs? The junior traders, the ones who did what they could to save the company in wake of the greed from the top. Who stays put? The upper management who f*&ked up in the first place. They just go from one company to another protecting themselves.
So whom does this bailout help? The companies that are in trouble are already closed or sold, and being restructured such that redundanices get eliminated. So traders, analysts, associates (abt 80000 of them) are now on the street. The money gets injected to the few surviving firms, in a loan, which the companies can hope to pay back. If they dont, u cant question anyone, since u cant question the decisions of the treasury, and the fed reserve. So whom does the bailout really help? This whole thing stinks of a circle of friends doing what they can to keep themselves in their huge houses and letting them drive their bmws.
A solution? Do u have to bail them out? They screwed up. If u give them money, they'll do it again, and ask for more money. Case in point, Lehmann. Bear sterns went kaput, then freddie and frannie, and the govt stepped in. Leh figured that the govt wud there as well. They didnt, taking a "position", which then disappeared with AIG, altho AIG directly impacted most of the common man.
Dont give the money, and the downward spiral goes out of control, and the American economy will go back to the stone age.
What do u do? I'm not in a place to say, but am sure there are brighter minds at work on this.
@ujjwal,
I can understand your frustration over the deal and the size of it. But considering that the american economy is itself over $10trillion at least, its ok. Yeah, it's probably around 8%, but then think if you were to loose that much money out of your savings today, you are not going to be dead or anything. Hurt a bit, but you would rise better for the challenge.
@utsavious,
you have the best point. The American dream still lives and people still flock there. Just take a look outside the american consulates in other countries of people standing in queue.
@zoxcleb,
you are probably right in the assumption that some big boys are brokering this deal to keep their big houses and bmws, but surely no all. Otherwise the WaMu sell-off to JP Morgan couldn't have been brokered when the WaMu chief was flying from Seattle to New York :) But then that might be part of the plan, who knows !!!
@all,
In my limited knowledge of the unfolding events, it is not the quantity of money being used that bothers me, rather it is the way in which it is being used. Couple of points come to mind
1. JP Morgan pays the Fed $1.9bn to buy the assets and deposits of WaMu. The shareholders and bondholders don't get anything. Why does the Fed get anything at all ?? Is it brokerage ?? Is it commission ??
2. The treasury is paying Market-to-market on the bad assets. Why ?? Everybody knows the current market value of these. Why does the fed need to jack up the prices at all?? Instead if the mortgages actually don't default, we can definitely show them as profits later on. And considering that these prices will be treated as benchmark by lots of banks, there seems that it is going to hurt more than necessary over the long term.
correction to my above comment - given that it is $700b, the size of the bailout is nearer to 5%-6%. Cheers !!!
For all those breathing fire through their nose, can you please provide me name of a few wall street traders/bankers or their associates who sold a mortgage that the person couldn't afford? was party to an incorrect lending practice?
Nope...i guess not. So first of all lets stop roughing up the wall street folks because they were only part of the problem, a big one maybe, still a part of it.
The root of the problem was greed in the heartlands(so famously called 'main street'). As a noob on wall street(no, seriously), i don't appreciate how the blame squarely lies with us.
So as far as a direct response to article is concerned, lets put things in perspective. The war in iraq is already over $650B. Before troop withdrawal, it'll be a trillion. At least this expenditure will be 'productive'.
@Suchintya
1. Shareholders lost their value a week ago. Bondholders can scrape the plate for crumbs. And the 1.9B isn't commission. Since WaMu was overtaken by fed, JP had to deposit money with fed.....its all part of the fine print when you open a bank and end up filing for bankruptcy :)
2. Not too sure what you meant in point 2 but to save all banks a lot more heartburn, fed introduced something called Mark to Maturity. This way, every time an asset's MTM is eroded (which is every day these days), they still dont need to reflect it in today's term....less begging for capital from foreign powers.
@Mandeep,
Thanks for clearing up that point of $1.9B. It is looks big so was not sure, but then given that the assets were worth $300B+, that looks fine.
Also on the second point, thanks for pointing out the error. It should have read, YTM (yield to maturity) and not mark-to-market. And you made my point - since we know the value of those mortgages are going to down some more before they stabilize, why pay the bloated amount ??
And yes, greed it is. Mainly on the part of individuals - but mostly speculators and people who helped them: the mortgage agents. And my firm belief is that all the root of it all lies the low interest rate regime after the 9/11 unleashed by Fed. Am all for free markets, but not for markets without a responsible market-maker !!!
bailout rejected,
are jobs in danger in the tech sector also,
can we ride the wave and hold onto what we have in the next few months till the new president comes in and people have an artificial sense of economic security because of the socialistic policies of the govt in the near term future.
what can we do to earn money in this time of misery?
these are important questions we need to answer.
The Israelis(Jews) as a community rode the great depression to where they are right now, economically powerful :)
no offense to them btu for me, money is religion and i appreciate them for what they have achieved..
I would like us indians to use this as an opportunity for us to flex some economic muscles...
Its time we woke up...
btu the most important thing,
when will inflation peak?
when will we have to cut down on the starbucks coffee to hold out on the economic crisis?
silly things but important things to note about...
also with almost all of us coming to the US to study in CMu with loans on our head, where does this put us?
with the increasing value of dollar against the rupee (hovering at Rs. 47 now) is it good ?
too many questions and i am at work..
lets have a discussion...
Uj,
start something...
@Utsav: This might sound selfish but I am hoping this bill gets passed. No companies. No consulting. No jobs. Less expenditure. Economy in vicious cycle.
I saw ads for a 2005 Merc, 50k miles for $10,000. Catch is - bring cash, take the keys. No one is giving out loans. How is the consumer expected to spend? You don't spend, the whole credit based economy collapses. Its bad. Please pass the bill and save us the pain.
I think u took it the wrong way,
I am concerned about the economy way more than you guys as I have money invested in stocks and I have seen them crashing,
I invested against the wise thoughts of my father and was on the verge of proving him wrong but over the last 5 months, when I should have exit I could not as I had lost considerable amt..
but hey , I am in it for the long term..
but instead of worrying myself to death like a normal man, I am thinking out of the box that what can we do now , we are in this mess, we cannot escape it but what can we do to rise better than before, thats the key, better than before nto take life as it comes, bt take it by its horns :)
I need to recover my loss plus make the profits which I should have had before...
u see positivity and opportunity have made me reach wherever I am..
and I will stick to them in these hard times to see me through..
so I was being selfish when I was being ultra positive but hey u know what
do u have the number for that merc guy,
I would buy ti right now, cash payment 10k hard cash..and then in a year when things settle down sell it for more than double the price :) 2005 model, 50k miles for 10k is a steal and imagine its price in 2009, :))
thats a neat < 150 % profit...
take that u messed up credit system....
2005 model , boy wouldnt it be a beauty
p.s. invest guys ,
grow with the f***ed up economy when it tries to find feet to stabilize itself...
GROW...because there is an opportunity...
:))
and thats the best part
India not being a credit based economy, I dont think we have altered our spnding habits so drastically to have suffered like the Americans..
no offense bt our stinginess did save us here, atleast it saved me :)
hang in tight brothers. the ride has gone downhill,
now comes the thrill going uphill...
and I am upbeat about it, because now with the new president whoever it is, will come populistic measures to satisfy the people..
doesn't this post need a bit of updating after today's rejection ?
and now they propose to raise the FDIC insurance limit from 100k to 250k? definitely helps the common man. anyone got >100k in their checking account?
Post a Comment